In Episode 74 of the Fuel Pulse Show podcast, host Erik Bjornstad discusses predictions for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season. He explains how hurricane seasons are measured using named storms, hurricanes, major hurricanes, and the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, which accounts for both storm intensity and duration.After reviewing forecasts from major institutions, including Colorado State University and the University of Arizona, the consensus indicates a near-normal to slightly above-average season with approximately 15 named storms expected. Differences in predictions largely stem from varying assumptions about sea surface temperatures.
Bjornstad compares these predictions to 2024's active season, which ranked in the top 20 historically with an ACE index of 161.6, and previews the next episode, which will focus on hurricane preparation strategies for critical infrastructure industries.
Listen to the Full Episode:
What You'll Learn:
- How hurricane seasons are measured and classified using named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes
- The significance of the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index and how it's calculated
- Current predictions for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season from multiple meteorological organizations
- How sea surface temperatures influence hurricane activity forecasts
- Comparison between upcoming predictions and recent hurricane seasons
- Historical context of significant hurricane seasons and notable storms
- The importance of hurricane preparation for critical infrastructure industries
- Why many named storms never make landfall in the United States
Ideas Worth Sharing:
Here are three notable quotes from the podcast episode:
-
"Hurricane season starts usually June the first. Runs through November 30th and before June. All through that first part of the year, we start getting predictions about whether we should expect the coming season to be good, bad, or ugly."
-
"The ACE index reflects this or confirms, makes us see that this idea that how bad a storm is isn't just reflected in something like, well, how, you know, what is its maximum wind speed. It really matters for saying how powerful a storm is. It really matters, not just if the winds are strong, but how long they are strong for."
-
"The predictions are, it's not going to be a quiet season. It may not end up being as busy or as, as bad as the seasons were in 2017 or 2024, much less, you know, 2004, 2005, all of which were, shall we say, historically active hurricane seasons."
Resources Mentioned:
Show Notes:
00:00:00 - 01:00 - Introduction to the Fuel Pulse Show podcast with host Erik Bjornstad, explaining the show covers all aspects of fuel for professional and personal use.
01:00 - 02:00 - Introduction to the topic: expectations for the upcoming Atlantic hurricane season, mentioning the first predictions from four organizations (Tropical Storm Risk, Colorado State University, University of Arizona, and North Carolina State University).
02:00 - 05:00 - Explanation of what a typical hurricane season looks like, covering the three to four key elements in hurricane season predictions: average number of named storms (14), hurricanes (7), major hurricanes (3), and the ACE (Accumulated Cyclone Energy) index (70-110 units).
05:00 - 08:00 - Detailed explanation of how the ACE index is calculated for individual storms and entire hurricane seasons, using sustained wind speeds expressed in knots.
08:00 - 11:00 - Discussion of historical ACE index records, including the highest recorded in 1933 (258.6), and notable recent years like 2004/2005. Description of Hurricane Ivan (2004) which had the second-highest single-storm ACE index at over 70.
11:00 - 14:00 - Predictions for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season from different organizations: Tropical Storm Risk (average season), Colorado State (above average), University of Arizona (normal), with varying predictions for named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes.
14:00 - 16:00 - Analysis of differences in ACE index predictions (ranging from 110 to 155 units) based on assumptions about sea surface temperatures.
16:00 - 18:00 - Comparison with the 2024 hurricane season, which was more active than usual with 18 named storms, 11 hurricanes, 5 major hurricanes, and an ACE index of 161.6, including notable storms like Hurricane Barrel, Milton, and Kirk.
18:00 - 19:00 - Preview of the next episode on how to prepare for hurricane season, particularly for critical industries like healthcare and telecommunications that need reliable emergency backup systems and fuel supplies.
